Independent guide. Cost figures use 2026 US average electricity rate and DOE heat pump efficiency standards.Verified May 2026

Electric heat pump running cost 2026: by climate zone

A typical 3-ton heat pump at HSPF2 9.5 in a moderate climate (DC, Denver) costs about $1,265 per year to run for heating, or $210 per month during the 6-month heating season. Cold climates double the cost; warm climates cut it by half. This page covers the cost calculation, the IRA 25C tax credit math, cold-climate variants and the backup-resistance overdraw that can quietly inflate winter bills.

Annual heating cost by climate zone

Climate zoneExample cityHeating hours/yrkWh/yrAnnual costAvg monthly
Hot (Zone 1-2)Miami, Phoenix300-7001,000-2,200$180-$400$30-$70
Mixed (Zone 3-4)Atlanta, Dallas1,200-2,0003,500-5,500$630-$990$105-$165
Moderate cold (Zone 5)DC, Denver2,500-3,5007,000-9,500$1,265-$1,715$210-$285
Cold (Zone 6)Boston, Chicago3,800-5,00010,000-13,000$1,805-$2,350$300-$390
Very cold (Zone 7-8)Minneapolis, Anchorage5,500-7,50014,000-19,000$2,530-$3,430$420-$570

Assumes 3-ton heat pump at HSPF2 9.5, US average 18.05c/kWh, well-insulated home of about 2,000 square feet. Cost scales roughly linearly with home heat-loss rate; older or poorly insulated homes can use 50 to 100 percent more kWh for the same comfort level. Variable-speed inverter units at HSPF2 11+ reduce kWh by 15 to 25 percent.

How HSPF2 and COP actually work

HSPF2 (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor, 2023 test procedure) is the DOE-required rating that captures heating output per electrical input across a typical heating season including realistic duct loss and partial-load operation. The numerical value is in BTU per Watt-hour; a unit rated HSPF2 9 delivers 9 BTU of heat per Wh of electricity consumed across the season. The federal minimum HSPF2 for new units is 7.5; ENERGY STAR threshold is 8.1; high-end ducted units run 9.5 to 11; the best mini-splits run 12 to 14.

COP (Coefficient of Performance) is the instantaneous efficiency at a specific operating point. COP 3 means 3 kWh of heat delivered per 1 kWh of electricity input. As outdoor temperature drops, COP drops because the temperature differential the refrigerant cycle must overcome grows. Standard heat pumps deliver COP 3 to 4 at 47F outdoor, drop to COP 2 at 17F outdoor, and approach COP 1 (resistance heating equivalent) below 5F. Cold-climate units (Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat, Bosch IDS Premium) maintain COP 2.5 to 2.7 down to 5F, which is meaningful in Northern climates.

The cold-climate heat pump revolution

Cold-climate heat pumps use enhanced vapor injection (EVI) compressors plus larger-than-standard heat exchangers to maintain useful COP at temperatures where standard heat pumps would default to resistance backup. The Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP) maintains a Cold Climate Air Source Heat Pump (ccASHP) specification and a list of qualifying products; in 2026 the list includes products from Mitsubishi, Daikin, Fujitsu, Bosch, LG, Carrier, Trane, Lennox and Bryant. Performance varies; the best units (Mitsubishi MXZ-SM, Bosch IDS Premium) maintain rated capacity and COP near 2.5 down to 5F outdoor.

For Northeast and Midwest homes that historically relied on a gas furnace with central AC, replacing the furnace with a cold-climate heat pump (using the existing ducts and the existing AC compressor's lineset and refrigerant pipes) is increasingly the lowest-cost-of-ownership choice. The runtime cost is competitive with gas at current price ratios; the equipment cost is in line with high-end gas+AC replacement; the IRA 25C credit plus state-stack rebates can cover $4,000 to $10,000 of the install. The transition is genuinely accelerating in the Northeast in 2026, driven by the combination of cheaper electricity (where applicable), better cold-climate equipment, and aggressive state incentives.

Backup resistance overdraw: the cost trap

Most ducted heat pumps installed in the US over the past 20 years include an electric resistance backup (typically 10 to 20 kW of strip heat) that kicks in either when the heat pump cannot meet load or when the thermostat detects rapid temperature recovery (after a large setback). Resistance backup runs at COP 1 (one unit of electricity = one unit of heat) which is 3 to 4 times more expensive per BTU than the heat pump's normal operation. A few hours of unnecessary resistance overdraw can add $50 to $200 to a winter bill.

The fix: ensure the thermostat is configured to allow gradual temperature recovery rather than aggressive setback recovery (set the "auxiliary heat lockout" temperature or use a smart thermostat with adaptive recovery). Verify the heat pump's balance point matches your home's design heat loss; if the heat pump is undersized, resistance runs constantly during cold spells. Most reputable HVAC contractors will configure this correctly at install; if your contractor did not, the configuration adjustment is usually free and pays back in the first cold snap.

25C tax credit and state rebate stack

The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (IRC Section 25C, claimed on IRS Form 5695) provides a 30 percent tax credit up to $2,000 per year for heat pump installation. The credit covers equipment plus labor, applies to ducted central heat pumps, ductless mini-splits and heat pump water heaters. To qualify, the equipment must meet specific efficiency standards (HSPF2 8.1+ for split systems, COP 1.75+ for cold climate). The credit is non-refundable (only reduces tax liability) but has no income cap.

State and utility programs stack substantial additional rebates. Massachusetts MassSave offers $10,000 for whole-home heat pump conversion; New York NYSERDA Clean Heat offers $4,000 to $8,500; Maine Efficiency Maine offers $1,500 per outdoor unit; California TECH Clean California offers $3,000 to $4,500; Colorado offers a $1,500 state credit. The IRA also includes the High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program (HEEHRP), administered by states, providing point-of-sale rebates for low and moderate income households up to $8,000 for heat pumps. A typical $12,000 heat pump install can net at $4,000 to $7,000 after stacking credits and rebates.

Heat pump vs gas furnace running cost

At the US average electricity rate of 18.05 cents per kWh and a typical residential gas price of $1.50 per therm, the per-BTU cost works out approximately: heat pump at HSPF2 9.5 = $0.60 per 100,000 BTU of heat delivered; 95 percent AFUE gas furnace = $1.58 per 100,000 BTU; resistance electric = $5.30 per 100,000 BTU. The heat pump is 60 to 65 percent cheaper to run than a modern gas furnace at these rates.

The math reverses if gas is much cheaper or electricity is much more expensive. In the upper Midwest, gas can run at $0.80 per therm; the heat pump still wins at the US average electricity rate but the margin narrows to 30 to 40 percent. In Hawaii or Connecticut with electricity at 30 to 43 cents per kWh, the heat pump's economic edge shrinks; in some cases gas (where available) is cheaper. The state-specific cost-comparison page (see the cross-link below) walks through this in detail.

Sources and further reading

FAQ

How much does it cost to run a heat pump per month?
A 3-ton heat pump at HSPF2 9.5 in a moderate climate (about 2,500 heating hours per year) uses roughly 7,000 kWh per heating season. At the national average rate of 18.05 cents per kWh, that is $1,265 per year or about $210 per month during the 6 heating months. Cold climates double the runtime and cost; warm climates cut it by 40 to 60 percent. Variable-speed inverter heat pumps with HSPF2 above 10 reduce running cost by 15 to 25 percent versus baseline.
What is the difference between HSPF and HSPF2?
HSPF (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor) was the older DOE rating; HSPF2 is the post-2023 test procedure that uses more realistic operating conditions, including duct losses and partial-load operation. HSPF2 numbers are about 15 percent lower than HSPF numbers for the same equipment, so a unit rated HSPF 10 in 2022 might be rated HSPF2 8.5 in 2024. Always compare like-for-like; older spec sheets quote HSPF, current spec sheets quote HSPF2.
What is COP?
COP (Coefficient of Performance) measures heat output per electrical input at a specific operating condition. A COP of 3 means the heat pump delivers 3 kWh of heat for every 1 kWh of electricity consumed. Modern heat pumps deliver COP of 3.0 to 4.5 at 47F outdoor temperature; cold-climate units maintain COP of 2.0 to 2.7 down to 5F outdoor. As outdoor temperature drops, COP drops; below the unit's rated operating point, the COP can fall to 1.0 (no better than resistance heating) and the backup electric resistance kicks in.
Is a heat pump cheaper than gas heating?
In moderate climates and at most current US gas-to-electricity price ratios, yes by 20 to 50 percent for the running cost. At the national average electricity rate of 18.05 cents per kWh and a typical gas price of $1.50 per therm, a heat pump running at COP 3 costs about 60 cents per 100 kBTU of heat; a 95% AFUE gas furnace costs about 1.58 per 100 kBTU; resistance electric costs $5.30 per 100 kBTU. In very cold climates with cheap gas (Midwest, Northeast) and an old standard-efficiency gas furnace, gas can be cheaper to run during the coldest 200 hours of the year; modern cold-climate heat pumps narrow that gap and many states subsidise the heat pump to close it.
What is the 25C tax credit?
The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (Section 25C, on IRS Form 5695) provides a 30 percent tax credit up to $2,000 per year for heat pump and heat-pump water heater installation. The credit covers equipment plus installation labor. It is a non-refundable credit (only reduces your tax liability, no refund of excess), but it does not have an income cap. Many states stack additional rebates: California's TECH Clean California, Massachusetts MassSave, New York NYSERDA Clean Heat, Maine Efficiency Maine. A typical $12,000 heat pump install can net out at $5,000 to $7,000 after credit + state rebate stacking.
Do I need backup heat with a heat pump?
Depends on climate. Below the heat pump's balance point (the outdoor temperature at which the heat pump's output equals the home's heat loss, typically 25 to 35F for standard heat pumps and 0 to 15F for cold-climate units), supplemental heat is required. Standard heat pumps use electric resistance backup (which is expensive to run at 100 percent of output). Cold-climate heat pumps (Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat, Bosch IDS Premium, LG Therma-V) extend the balance point much lower and largely eliminate the need for backup in most US climates. In severe cold (Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota north of Minneapolis), a dual-fuel system (heat pump + gas backup) is often the right choice.
Does a heat pump still cool?
Yes. A heat pump is essentially an AC that can run in reverse. The same equipment cools the home in summer and heats it in winter. This is one of the strongest economic arguments for a heat pump: a single piece of equipment handles both seasons, eliminating the need for a separate furnace plus AC. For new construction or homes due for HVAC replacement, the heat pump is typically the lowest total cost of ownership choice, before considering any credit or rebate.
Disclaimer. Cost figures use 2026 EIA US-average residential rate; substitute your state rate for accurate per-state estimates. Equipment efficiency varies by manufacturer and installation quality. Tax credit and rebate amounts can change with federal and state policy; confirm current values at the time of purchase. Independent resource.

Updated 2026-05-11